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Models overestimate Ebola cases

Tue, 2014-11-04 20:43 — mike kraft

Rate of infection in Liberia seems to plateau, raising questions over the usefulness of models in an outbreak

NATURE International Weekly Journal of Science Nov. 4, 2014
by Declan Butler

The Ebola outbreak in West Africa has infected at least 13,567 people and killed 4,951, according to figures released on 31 October by the World Health Organization (WHO). Now, in a rare encouraging sign, the number of new cases in Liberia seems to be flattening after months of exponential growth. Scientists say it is too soon to declare that the disease is in retreat: case data are often unreliable, and Ebola can be quick to resurge. But it is clear that mathematical models have failed to accurately project the outbreak’s course.

The reality of the Ebola outbreak is not reflected by model projections of high case numbers. Daniel Berehulak/NYT/Redux/eyevine

Researchers are now struggling to understand whether reports of empty beds at treatment centres and declining burial numbers are signs that fewer people are developing Ebola, or whether cases and deaths are going unrecorded.....

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Treating Ebola: The Bluetooth Method

Tue, 2014-11-04 20:13 — mike kraft

Keeping hands-off without abandoning the patient.

NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC Nov. 3, 2014
By Melissa Pandika

Description of the way that the University of Nebraska Medical Center, which has successfully treated two Ebola patients, uses blue tooth technology and the " no-touch approach."

Members of the Department of Defense's Ebola Military Medical Support Team dress with protective gear during training at San Antonio Military Medical Center in San Antonio. Photograph by Eric Gay, AP

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http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2014/11/141106-science-ebola-cure-medicine-health-africa-disease-technology/

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Journey to the center of an epidemic

Tue, 2014-11-04 19:10 — mike kraft

A Pulitzer winning science writer's saga of flying to the Ebola zones of Liberia

FOREIGN POLICY Nov. 3, 014
By Laura Garrett

MONROVIA, Liberia — The journey to Liberia tests the mettle of any American wanting to help the nation in its Ebola crisis. The trek really begins with fears about how the Samaritan will be received once he or she returns from the epidemic, facing quarantines and stigma. And the first leg lands the traveler in a political and cultural climate in steamy West Africa marked by resilience in the face of genuine threat.

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Ebola Travel Bans Buy Only Time, Not Safety

Tue, 2014-11-04 15:37 — mike kraft

BLOOMERG BUSINESS WEEK Nov. 4, 2014
By John Tozzi

...Blocking most travel from Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone, where a total of more than 13,000 people have been infected with Ebola since the outbreak began in March, would only modestly reduce how long it takes for the virus to reach new countries, according to mathematical simulations published in the journal Eurosurveillance. For example, stopping 71 percent of travelers from entering other nations in Africa from the three countries in which Ebola is widespread would delay a case from appearing elsewhere on the continent by only 30 days, according to the model. ...

Medical staff wait for passengers arriving from Guinea at the airport in Abidjan on Oct. 20,as Ivory Coast's airline resumed flights to the three west African countries worst-hit by Ebola. Photograph by Issouf Sanogo/AFP via Getty Image

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Structural Adaptivity, Before and After Thoughts

Tue, 2014-11-04 12:57 — WDS1200-Columbus

As a means of concluding these writings on Structural Adaptivity and Resilience, following are some of the background thoughts, with recent revision, that led me to my proposals. Originally, my writings were directed at city and regional planning. However now I realize they are also about resilience. I hope my submittals will be helpful. I will try to write more soon.

Time. Planners, resilience makers, and all other leaders and professionals dealing with the built environment must focus on long time spans. In order to have significant impact on the future of our world, we must recognize that only by looking at big chunks of history and big chunks of future time can we really see the reality of what is going on. Likewise, we need to do so in order to see the reality of what needs to be done.

Typical urban or regional plans target a future some 20 years ahead. Moreover, they typically are based on past trends of 20 years or so. However, our world does not change in 20-year cycles. Twenty years is a very short time period in the flow of transformation.

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Fighting an Epidemic With Hands Tied

Tue, 2014-11-04 11:46 — mike kraft

Detailed discussion of the difficulties in recruiting health workers for West Africa

A health care worker dressed in protective clothing in an Ebola ward last month in Liberia. Organizing workers in West Africa has been a problem. Credit Daniel Berehulak for The New York Times

NEW YORK TIMES Nov. 4, 2014
By LAWRENCE K. ALTMAN, M.D.

WASHINGTON — Hundreds of government and civilian workers of all stripes, and thousands of military personnel, have braved the terrifying prospect of infection to respond to the Ebola emergency in West Africa. And thousands more will be needed for an effort that is expected to go well into 2015.

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W.H.O. Deplores Delay in Ebola Vaccine

Mon, 2014-11-03 21:52 — mike kraft

THE NEW YORK TIMES Nov. 3, 2014
By Rick Gladstone

The leader of the World Health Organization criticized the drug industry on Monday, saying that the drive for profit was one reason no vaccine had yet been found for Ebola.

In a speech at a regional conference in Cotonou, Benin, Dr. Margaret Chan, the director general of the W.H.O., also denounced the glaring absence of effective public health systems in the worst-affected countries.

Dr. Chan said her organization had long warned of the consequences of greed in drug development and of neglect in public health.

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New England researchers help shape the fight on Ebola

Mon, 2014-11-03 19:12 — mike kraft

THE BOSTON GLOBE Nov. 3, 2014

By Carolyn Y. Johnson

Northeastern University researchers use computers to simulate 20 million virtual Ebola outbreaks each week. Yale scientists are building three models that project the spread of the deadly disease. And a team at Boston Children’s Hospital is combing through data to gauge whether medical interventions are working.

.... they are providing a constant stream of evidence that is beginning to reveal the weak spots of the epidemic. For example, scientists’ models are beginning to identify basic patterns of who is being infected and when and how Ebola is being spread, which could help identify the most meaningful ways to intervene.

...According to their model, isolating three-quarters of the patients within the first four days that they show symptoms would help eliminate the disease.

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http://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2014/11/02/ebola-disease-modelers-new-england-help-predict-future-spread-best-strategies/LZHSEGlInJs6SflLWW0yaP/story.html

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Nigerian-virologist-delivers-scathing-analysis-africas-response-ebola

Mon, 2014-11-03 18:54 — mike kraft

SCIENCE INSIDER Nov. 3, 2014

By Kai Kupferschmidt

VIENNA—After Oyewale Tomori finished his talk on Ebola here at the International Meeting on Emerging Diseases and Surveillance, there was stunned silence. Tomori, the president of the Nigerian Academy of Science, used his plenary to deliver a scathing critique of how African countries have handled the threat of Ebola and how corruption is hampering efforts to improve health. Aid money often simply disappears, Tomori charged, "and we are left underdeveloped, totally and completely unprepared to tackle emerging pathogens."

"Ebola is Africa's problem," says Oyewale Tomori.

Trained as a veterinarian, Tomori was the World Health Organization’s (WHO's) regional virologist for the African region in 1995 during the Ebola outbreak in Kikwit in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC).

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Home> Health 'Post-Ebola Syndrome' Persists After Virus Is Cured, Doctor Says

Mon, 2014-11-03 16:46 — mike kraft

ABC NEWS Nov. 3, 2014
By LIZ NEPORENT via Good Morning America

West Africans fortunate to survive Ebola may go on to develop what's being called "post-Ebola syndrome," characterized by vision loss and long-term poor health, a doctor told a World health Organization.