(task) Current Status of the Zika Epidemic in the US and its Territories

USRS GRS TXRS SFLRS Gulf Coast RS

4 cover

Zika

> Begin forwarded message:
>
> From: Kathy Gilbeaux <gilbojer@aol.com>
> Subject: Re: datos de zika del departamento de salud en la florida
> Date: May 5, 2017 at 4:05:48 AM EDT
> To: michael.d.mcdonald@mac.com
> Cc: aliciajuarrero@gmail.com, eloy.ortiz2011@gmail.com
>
> Mike,
>
> The CDC is already tracking this data . . .
>
> https://www.cdc.gov/zika/geo/united-states.html
>
> Kathy
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: michael mcdonald <michael.d.mcdonald@mac.com>
> To: Kathy Gilbeaux <gilbojer@aol.com>
> Cc: Alicia Juarrero <aliciajuarrero@gmail.com>; eloy.ortiz2011 <eloy.ortiz2011@gmail.com>
> Sent: Thu, May 4, 2017 6:00 pm
> Subject: Re: datos de zika del departamento de salud en la florida
>
> Kathy, Alicia, and Eloy,
>
> We also should see if we can identify the numbers for locally-acquired infections suspected to be from sexual transmission vs. locally-acquired infections suspected to be from a mosquito vector. This would be an imperfect breakdown, but it will be important in understanding the likely progression of the epidemic and the structure of our prevention and epidemic management methods.
>
> Mike
>
> Michael D. McDonald, Dr.P.H.
>
> Coordinator
> Global Health Response and Resilience Alliance
>
> Chairman
> Oviar Global Resilience Systems, Inc.
>
> Executive Director
> Health Initiatives Foundation, Inc.
>
> Cell: 202-468-7899
> Michael.D.McDonald@mac.com <mailto:Michael.D.McDonald@mac.com>
>
> http://resiliencesystem.org <http://resiliencesystem.org/>
>
>
> On May 4, 2017, at 6:34 PM, Kathy Gilbeaux <gilbojer@aol.com <mailto:gilbojer@aol.com>> wrote:
>
> Alicia,
>
> This is the same link that I sent to you for the daily reports. I didn't see any weekly reports. I also did a search on that page for the word "weekly" with no results.
>
> Kathy
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Alicia Juarrero <aliciajuarrero@gmail.com <mailto:aliciajuarrero@gmail.com>>
> To: Kathy Gilbeaux <gilbojer@aol.com <mailto:gilbojer@aol.com>>
> Cc: Eloy Cell MIAMI <eloy.ortiz2011@gmail.com <mailto:eloy.ortiz2011@gmail.com>>; michael mcdonald <michael.d.mcdonald@mac.com <mailto:michael.d.mcdonald@mac.com>>
> Sent: Thu, May 4, 2017 5:29 pm
> Subject: Re: datos de zika del departamento de salud en la florida
>
> http://www.floridahealth.gov/newsroom/all-articles.html <http://www.floridahealth.gov/newsroom/all-articles.html>.
> it's a painful chore to go through each of these reports and insert them on one spreadsheet. If you go through this link, you will notice that after the middle of July there is no longer a per-county tabulation included.
> The per county reports in this link are only for those weeks (end of Jan-mid July) -- as labeled on the heading of each column of the first page of the spreadsheet.
> If you add each of these rows on the first spreadsheet (assuming they are totals), the numbers still don't add up with any way you try to interpret the totals reported in the Summary -- page two of the spreadsheets.
>
> A
>
> Alicia
>
> Alicia Juarrero, PhD
> Associate Scholar, Program on Clinical Neuroethics
> Georgetown University Medical Center (Washington, D.C.)
> Visiting Scholar, Philosophy Department
> University of Miami (FL)
>
>
>
>
>
> On Thu, May 4, 2017 at 6:14 PM, Kathy Gilbeaux <gilbojer@aol.com <mailto:gilbojer@aol.com>> wrote:
> Alicia,
>
> Here is a link to the daily reports for 2016 (click and scroll down) . . .
> http://www.floridahealth.gov/newsroom/all-articles.html <http://www.floridahealth.gov/newsroom/all-articles.html>
>
> Can you send me the link to the weekly reports?
>
> Thanks,
>
> Kathy
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Alicia Juarrero <aliciajuarrero@gmail.com <mailto:aliciajuarrero@gmail.com>>
> To: Kathy Gilbeaux <gilbojer@aol.com <mailto:gilbojer@aol.com>>
> Cc: michael mcdonald <michael.d.mcdonald@mac.com <mailto:michael.d.mcdonald@mac.com>>
> Sent: Thu, May 4, 2017 5:01 pm
> Subject: Re: datos de zika del departamento de salud en la florida
>
> Yes, we saw that summary. But when you open each of the weekly reports and note them, you get this weird table I sent you.
>
> On May 4, 2017 4:32 PM, "Kathy Gilbeaux" <gilbojer@aol.com <mailto:gilbojer@aol.com>> wrote:
> Alicia,
>
> FYI . . . Here are the 2016 totals from the State of Florida website . . .
>
> Infection Type
>
> Infection Count
>
> Travel-Related Infections of Zika 2016
>
> 1,122
>
> Locally Acquired Infections of Zika 2016
>
> 285
>
> Undetermined 2016
>
> 49
>
> Pregnant Women with Lab-Evidence of Zika 2016
>
> 299
> --------------
>
> Kathy
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Kathy Gilbeaux <gilbojer@aol.com <mailto:gilbojer@aol.com>>
> To: aliciajuarrero <aliciajuarrero@gmail.com <mailto:aliciajuarrero@gmail.com>>
> Cc: michael.d.mcdonald <michael.d.mcdonald@mac.com <mailto:michael.d.mcdonald@mac.com>>
> Sent: Thu, May 4, 2017 3:22 pm
> Subject: Re: datos de zika del departamento de salud en la florida
>
> Hi Alicia,
>
> Before we begin asking questions, I suggest you conduct a review of the numbers within the spreadsheet, as compared to the numbers within the State of Florida link below.
> http://www.floridahealth.gov/diseases-and-conditions/zika-virus/index.html <http://www.floridahealth.gov/diseases-and-conditions/zika-virus/index.html>
>
> Page 1 of your spreadsheet is labeled weeks 5-30, but page 2 of your spreadsheet is labeled weeks 5-52
>
> In using Bay County as an example, I see the State of Florida has listed 4 cases for all of 2016, but I do not see any of those cases listed on page 1 within your spreadsheet.
>
> Perhaps some of our questions can be answered by first reviewing the numbers and dates, and then we will be able to narrow our focus on the differences.
>
> Kathy
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Alicia Juarrero <aliciajuarrero@gmail.com <mailto:aliciajuarrero@gmail.com>>
> To: Kathy Gilbeaux <gilbojer@aol.com <mailto:gilbojer@aol.com>>
> Cc: michael mcdonald <michael.d.mcdonald@mac.com <mailto:michael.d.mcdonald@mac.com>>
> Sent: Thu, May 4, 2017 11:04 am
> Subject: Fwd: datos de zika del departamento de salud en la florida
>
> Hi, Kathy:
> Since I assume you do not read Spanish, let me summarize Eloy's email below, of which I have a question:
>
> I don't understand the following: if (on the attached (2 sheet Excel file) you look at the the rows and you assume each entry records new cases that week per county, then the total in Florida for those 28 weeks surpasses 13000+. So row entries cannot be reporting new cases that week per county.
> Assume therefore that each entry in each row indicates total cases for that county (so far) that week. This corresponds to the links If so, however, take a careful look at the column totals on the bottom of the page: you will note at least three weeks where in comparison to the week before there is a significant drop in totals for that week. Significant enough that they cannot just indicate some time of correction from previous weeks(s), it seems to me.
> How can totals drop from one week to the next? Is there something in legitimate epidemiological reporting that can explain this?
> I suggested to Eloy that it might be that folks moved out of that county and/or the state that week, and if these reports cover Zika cases IN the state of Florida that week, that would explain it. But Eloy says that is impossible as it would indicate poor epidemiological methodology -- that no one does that and expects statistics to be trustworthy. Given the federal nature of the US and how much state officials would love to just export their problems, I wonder, though.
> And notice that these "drops" are not limited to one county -- there are a number of counties that show a Drop from one week to the next. Even weird Santa Rosa County which shows 5 (a stable total for weeks on end) suddenly then drop to 4...
> Is there a logical explanation, or does this point to something more sinister? Eloy provides links for the sources of this clinical data.
> NB: I am not even addressing the fact that the per county weekly reports stop cold at week 30 (July). This problem just adds more suspicion to the question of faulty reporting in those first six months or so when they did publish per county per week information.
>
> Alicia
>
> ---------- Forwarded message ----------
> From: Eloy Ortiz Hernandez <eloy.ortiz2011@gmail.com <mailto:eloy.ortiz2011@gmail.com>>
> Date: 2017-05-04 10:17 GMT-04:00
> Subject: datos de zika del departamento de salud en la florida
> To: Alicia Juarrero <aliciajuarrero@gmail.com <mailto:aliciajuarrero@gmail.com>>
>
>
> Procedimiento:
>
> Se obtuvieron los datos publicados por el departamento de salud del estado de la Florida en http://www.floridahealth.gov/newsroom/all-articles.html <http://www.floridahealth.gov/newsroom/all-articles.html>. Solo se tomaron datos por condado a partir de febrero 5 de 2016 hasta el 31 de julio, que segun reportes, pues a partir de esta fecha no se reporta por condado, sino cifras globales del estado.
> A pesar de que no se dice que son datos acumulados, parece ser que estos datos si lo son, sin embargo en varias semanas las cifras de la siguiente semana es menor que la anterior, lo cual es imposible si realmente son casos acumulados.
>
> Estos datos se muestran en archivo excel adjunto en la primera hoja titulada zika_cases_2016, cuyos encabezados muestran el numero de semana y la fecha de inicio de semana. Debajo se muestra en gris la suma por columna.
> La ultima fila corresponde al calculo de casos por semana, suponiendo que el reporte es de casos acumulados. En amarillo datos negativos indican inconsistencia si es que son acumulados.
>
> Los datos en la segunda hoja del excel titulada zika_cases_summary_2016, corresponde a los datos totales del anno reportados en la pagina http://www.floridahealth.gov/diseases-and-conditions/zika-virus/index.html <http://www.floridahealth.gov/diseases-and-conditions/zika-virus/index.html> del departamento de salud.
>
> Si no son casos acumulados, entonces los valores reportados al final del anno , no se corresponden con las cifras reportadas hasta la semana 30 en la primera hoja.
>
> La cifra total del anno en http://www.floridahealth.gov/diseases-and-conditions/zika-virus/index.html <http://www.floridahealth.gov/diseases-and-conditions/zika-virus/index.html> es 1122 (zika_cases_summary_2016)
>
> La cifra hasta la semana 30 reportada semanalmente en http://www.floridahealth.gov/newsroom/all-articles.html <http://www.floridahealth.gov/newsroom/all-articles.html> (Ver hoja zika_cases_2016)
>
> No se si resulta un poco enredado la descripcion, pero es lo mejor que pude hacer.
>
> La esencia es que no cuadra la lista con el billete.
>
>
>