JRees's blog

News reports on swine flu / H1N1 are showing no slow down in the virus. Bloomberg.com reports flu cases in Australia are doubling about every two days, with 401 confirmed cases as of June 01. This has risen from 20 on May 25. Most cases are in the colder southeastern state of Victoria with 306 cases, up from 173 two days earlier.

Many experts on how to contain the spread of flu have questioned the efficacy of school closures. The following article in the New York Times from May 21, 2009 reminds us that students whose schools were closed will not always stay

at home.

Flu Closings Failing to Keep Schoolchildren at Home
By JULIE BOSMAN

The CDC, MMWR (Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report) is showing numbers on the Swine Flu to May 06, 2009. The details include: Mexico with nearly 12,000 suspected cases, and 1000 confirmed; the United States with 600 confirmed and 800 probable cases. Testing reveals that more than 99% of the probable cases pop positive for the A (H1N1) virus.

A crash effort to analyze the genes of the swine flu virus has revealed that it first emerged in humans last year — most likely last fall.

Author: Richard Knox
Publication Date: May 7, 2009
Source: NPR Morning Edition

"The consistent range we're getting out is the second half of last year — between June and December," says Oliver Pybus of Oxford University. "The best estimate is the middle of that range, kind of September."

Neighbors are reaching out to talk about crime and economy, helping others through job losses and organizing potlucks.

Author: By Annie Gowen, The Washington Post
Date: 05 May 2009
Published: Seattle Times

WASHINGTON — When Kris Kumaroo founded a new neighborhood association in October, he was driven by a desire to combat recession-era problems such as vacant homes and petty crime.

By TARA PARKER-POPE
Published: May 4, 2009
NY Times: Well Blog

Confused about swine flu? It’s no wonder, with all the seemingly mixed messages coming out of health agencies and news organizations.

Last week, the World Health Organization raised the alert level for the virus, whose formal name is H1N1, indicating that a “pandemic is imminent.” Now, health officials report that although the virus is widespread, most cases seem to be mild. People are being told not to panic, but schools in some communities remain closed.

Thursday, April 30, 2009

The East Meets West Foundation recently introduced a model programme to help communities in the central region of Vietnam adapt to climate change.

According to the foundation’s survey, climate change is affecting lives in all 25 communes in Quang Nam province where vulnerable farmers in the coastal, mountainous and lowland areas rely heavily on agriculture and fishing industry.

Most of those interviewed said they often lacked timely information on upcoming disasters and did not have access to Government policies regarding natural disasters preparedness and CC adaptation.

"The only thing that can be said with certainty about influenza viruses is that they are entirely unpredictable. No one can say, right now, how the pandemic will evolve."

On the supply of antiviral medication:
"Global manufacturing capacity, though greatly increased, is still not sufficient to produce enough antiviral medication and pandemic vaccines to protect the entire world population in time."

What we know from history:

Margret Chan, head of the World Health Organization warned in a interview with the Financial Times that swine flu may re-emerge stronger than ever even if the current outbreak appears to be declining.

From an article published 3 May, Chan told Britain’s Financial Times that an apparent decline in mortality rates did not mean the pandemic was coming to an end and a second wave may strike ‘with a vengeance.’ If it’s going to happen it would be the biggest of all outbreaks the world has faced in the 21st century,’ the paper quoted her as saying.

A disease spread sim has shown that flu interventions must be done quickly, to be effective. Researchers writing in the journal BMC Public Health have shown that staying at home, closing schools and isolating infected people within the home should reduce infection, but only if they are used in combination, activated without delay and maintained for a relatively long period. Professor George Milne and his colleagues from the University of Western Australia (UWA) simulated the effect of social distancing on the spread of a flu virus within a small town.

Filligent, the Hong Kong-based biotech company, claims they are mobilizing stocks of a anti-infective face mask called BioMask which traps and kills 99.9% of bacteria and viruses on contact, and is a powerful weapon to contain the spread of the swine flu. The Filligent website claims:

Google Flu Trends, has been updating itself with data and news stories about the swine flu pandemic. One might question the veracity of the tracking given the potential interest in pandemic possibilities. In describing how Flu Trends tracks outbreaks: "We've found that there is a close relationship between how many people search for flu-related topics and how many people actually have flu symptoms," reads an explanation on the site.

What will a post-crash, truly 21st-century world look like? For people 
thinking about global systems (economic, environmental, and social) 
one idea stands out: resilience.


Source: FastCompany.Com
Author(s): Jamais Cascio
Article location: fastcompany.com
Date: April 3, 2009
Type: Online Blog Article

Internationally syndicated radio show “A World of Possibilities” interviewed scientists and researchers from around the world at the Resilience 2008 conference in Stockholm, Sweden. This 55minute long radio show: