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It’s not only coronavirus cases that are rising. Now covid deaths are, too.

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For weeks this summer, it was a seeming paradox of the coronavirus pandemic: cases in the United States were rising but deaths were falling.

To the Trump administration, this was evidence that its strategy for combating covid-19 was working. To medical experts, it was only a matter of time before the trajectory changed.

And now it has. Nationwide, deaths have begun to rise again. In some of the worst-hit states, especially across the South and the West, new death records are being set daily. As a virus-scarred summer wears on, public health specialists say the numbers are almost certain to continue to climb.

“Even if we could magically lock everyone in their room and no one transmits to anyone, we would still be seeing an increase in deaths for the next several weeks,” said Catherine Troisi, an epidemiologist with UTHealth School of Public Health in Houston.

That grim assessment came as the United States on Friday set another record for total cases, with more than 76,000 — including a new high of nearly 15,000 in Texas alone.

More than 900 people died, matching a death count of recent days that has consistently hovered just below 1,000. That is well beneath the toll during the virus’s most devastating stretch, in April, when 2,000 or more people were dying daily nationwide. But it is also well above the totals earlier this month, when the average number of daily deaths dropped below 500.

 

The recent increase in fatalities follows a nationwide surge in cases that has brought the country record numbers of new infections. Public health experts have long said that the death count is a lagging indicator — with patients typically taking two to three weeks after diagnosis to succumb — and that the number of new deaths would inevitably follow the case count higher.

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