Africa

Rate of infection in Liberia seems to plateau, raising questions over the usefulness of models in an outbreak

NATURE  International Weekly Journal of Science                                     Nov. 4, 2014
by Declan Butler

The Ebola outbreak in West Africa has infected at least 13,567 people and killed 4,951, according to figures released on 31 October by the World Health Organization (WHO). Now, in a rare encouraging sign, the number of new cases in Liberia seems to be flattening after months of exponential growth. Scientists say it is too soon to declare that the disease is in retreat: case data are often unreliable, and Ebola can be quick to resurge. But it is clear that mathematical models have failed to accurately project the outbreak’s course.

 The reality of the Ebola outbreak is not reflected by model projections of high case numbers. Daniel Berehulak/NYT/Redux/eyevine

Researchers are now struggling to understand whether reports of empty beds at treatment centres and declining burial numbers are signs that fewer people are developing Ebola, or whether cases and deaths are going unrecorded.....

ASSOCIATED PRESS                                                                              Nov. 4, 2014

by Sarah DiLorenzo

DAKAR, Senegal (AP) — Thousands of people in Sierra Leone are being forced to violate Ebola quarantines to find food because deliveries are not reaching them, aid agencies said....

Large swaths of the West African country have been sealed off to prevent the spread of Ebola, and within those areas many people have been ordered to stay in their homes.

The government, with help from the U.N.'s World Food Program, is tasked with delivering food and other services to those people. But there are many "nooks and crannies" in the country that are being missed, Jeanne Kamara, Christian Aid's Sierra Leone representative, said Tuesday....

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http://news.yahoo.com/thousands-break-ebola-quarantine-food-124818527.html

BLOOMERG BUSINESS WEEK                                                                                            Nov. 4, 2014
By John Tozzi

...Blocking most travel from Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone, where a total of more than 13,000 people have been infected with Ebola since the outbreak began in March, would only modestly reduce how long it takes for the virus to reach new countries, according to mathematical simulations published in the journal Eurosurveillance. For example, stopping 71 percent of travelers from entering other nations in Africa from the three countries in which Ebola is widespread would delay a case from appearing elsewhere on the continent by only 30 days, according to the model. ...

Medical staff wait for passengers arriving from Guinea at the airport in Abidjan on Oct. 20,as Ivory Coast's airline resumed flights to the three west African countries worst-hit by Ebola. Photograph by Issouf Sanogo/AFP via Getty Image

Detailed discussion of the difficulties in recruiting health workers for West Africa

A health care worker dressed in protective clothing in an Ebola ward last month in Liberia. Organizing workers in West Africa has been a problem. Credit Daniel Berehulak for The New York Times

 NEW YORK TIMES                                Nov. 4, 2014
By LAWRENCE K. ALTMAN, M.D.

WASHINGTON — Hundreds of government and civilian workers of all stripes, and thousands of military personnel, have braved the terrifying prospect of infection to respond to the Ebola emergency in West Africa. And thousands more will be needed for an effort that is expected to go well into 2015.