Analysis: despite surge in Covid cases, a lower rate of severe illness in some states may reflect high vaccination rates, testing and the use of antiviral drugs, experts say.

Covid cases are surging again. Why hospitalizations may not. A lower rate of severe illness in some states may reflect high vaccination rates, the prevalence of testing and the use of antiviral drugs, experts say. NBC News

Covid-19 cases are surging yet again in the United States, but unlike previous waves, a substantial rise in hospitalizations and deaths isn't following yet.

The U.S. reported nearly 140,000 Covid-19 cases on Wednesday, marking the third day in a row daily cases have exceeded 100,000, according to an NBC News tally.  

Nationwide, cases have climbed by roughly 58 percent over the past two weeks as the omicron coronavirus subvariant BA.2 and an offshoot of that strain, called BA.2.12.1, continue to spread.

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Hospitalizations are rising to nearly 20,000 per day, up 20 percent over the past two weeks, according to an NBC News analysis of Health and Human Services data — but officials say that metric is becoming less of a reliable indicator.

In Massachusetts, for example, while Covid hospitalizations have gone up, two-thirds of the people hospitalized are so-called incidental Covid cases, meaning they were hospitalized for other ailments but also tested positive for the virus, according to the state's Department of Health.

Meanwhile, deaths across the country have dropped to an average of 301 fatalities per day, down roughly 17 percent over the past two weeks, according to an NBC News tally, and down from more than 2,600 per day during the omicron winter surge.

The lower rate of severe illness in the Northeast may reflect the region’s high vaccination rate, the prevalence of testing and the use of antiviral drugs, such as Paxlovid, which has been shown in clinical trials to cut a patient’s risk of hospitalization and death by 89 percent, the official said.

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