People without symptoms spread virus in more than half of cases -- CDC model

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Fri, 2021-01-08 10:45 — mike kraft

People without symptoms spread virus in more than half of cases, CDC model finds The finding underscores the importance of following guidelines to wear masks and maintain social distancing. Ben Guarino Washington Post

People with no symptoms transmit more than half of all cases of the novel coronavirus, according to a model developed by researchers at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Their findings reinforce the importance of following the agency’s guidelines: Regardless of whether you feel ill, wear a mask, wash your hands, stay socially distant and get a coronavirus test. That advice has been a constant refrain in a pandemic responsible for more than 350,000 deaths in the United States.

Fifty-nine percent of all transmission came from people without symptoms, under the model’s baseline scenario. That includes 35 percent of new cases from people who infect others before they show symptoms and 24 percent that come from people who never develop symptoms at all.

“The bottom line is controlling the covid-19 pandemic really is going to require controlling the silent pandemic of transmission from persons without symptoms,” said Jay C. Butler, the CDC deputy director for infectious diseases and a co-author of the study. “The community mitigation tools that we have need to be utilized broadly to be able to slow the spread of SARS-CoV-2 from all infected persons, at least until we have those vaccines widely available.”

The model, published Thursday in the journal JAMA Network Open, comports with earlier estimates of the contribution of asymptomatic spread.

“It’s certainly confirmatory, but it’s nice to see confirmation,” said epidemiologist Richard Menzies, who directs the McGill International TB Centre in Canada and was not affiliated with this research. “These are pretty believable, solid results.”

Also See CDC Interim Clinical Guidance for Management of Patients with Confirmed COVID-19

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