U.S. largely weathered Christmas coronavirus surge, but experts warn the threat could intensify

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Sat, 2021-01-23 17:23 — mike kraft

U.S. largely weathered Christmas coronavirus surge, but experts warn the threat could intensify Fenit Nirappil Washington Post

The United States appears to have avoided the worst-case coronavirus scenarios that officials feared would overwhelm hospitals in the aftermath of Christmas and New Year’s gatherings. But experts caution that the threat from the virus has not diminished and could intensify with the emergence of new variants.

Even as hospitalizations begin to stabilize, they do so from record heights. The country’s hospitals averaged more than 130,000 covid-19 patients a day over seven days this month, far exceeding summer and spring surges. The death toll from cases contracted before and after the holidays will stretch into February. Authorities reported nearly 4,500 deaths Wednesday, a new single-day record.

Cases skyrocketed at the start of 2021, approaching a seven-day daily average of 250,000 around Jan. 10 before declining. But the toll on the health-care system was softer than expected.

Hospitals had braced for enormous spikes in patients that could have forced rationing care, exhausted already limited beds and sparked a nationwide shortage of health-care workers. But officials across the country said those dire predictions — a wave of severe Christmas cases weeks after a rapid increase from Thanksgiving — did not materialize in most places.

“The surge on top of a surge that could have happened didn’t really happen,” said Erin Bromage, a biology professor at the University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth. “We dodged a bullet, and we’ve done better than we could have, but we are still in a pretty terrible spot.”

Anthony S. Fauci, the nation’s top infectious-disease expert, said at a White House briefing Thursday that cases appeared to be plateauing, but he warned that it could be a temporary slowdown.

Hospital leaders and experts are still on edge. Variants of the coronavirus, including the B.1.1.7 strain, which originated in the United Kingdom and is believed to be 50 to 70 percent more contagious, could result in further case spikes in cold-weather months, when people are more likely to be indoors. And the availability of the coronavirus vaccines, while offering lifesaving protection to millions, could also lead to a false sense of complacency, particularly as they can be difficult to obtain. ...

Experts have floated several theories for why the holiday season dealt less damage than expected. Some people may have changed their behavior after seeing the Thanksgiving spike, such as by celebrating outdoors, limiting gatherings to immediate family or quarantining before Christmas. More people who have contracted the virus could be receiving treatment at home while the sickest patients are hospitalized. ...

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