Financial Times: Data hide scale of China’s job woe

By Jamil Anderlini in Beijing
Published: February 10 2009

The collapse of China’s export engine appears to have hit the most vulnerable first, with the state estimating that 20m of the 130m rural migrant workers have lost their jobs and returned to home towns and villages. The implied 15.3 per cent unemployment rate among migrants is not captured in official jobless numbers, which measure only urban workers who register as unemployed. That official number rose to 8.86m people, or 4.2 per cent of the urban workforce, in December, but economists say it vastly underestimates the true scale of the problem. For one thing it does not count anyone made redundant who still receives some sort of stipend.

“It is virtually impossible to get a handle on the true numbers, but we are clearly nowhere near the peak of unemployment,” Stephen Green, a Shanghai-based economist with Standard Chartered bank, said. “The worst is yet to come.” Several senior officials have voiced concerns that rising unemployment might lead to serious social unrest that could even threaten the Communist party’s tight grip on power. Others believe that fear is overblown but all agree China is facing the highest unemployment for at least a decade. The government has told companies in the eastern coastal regions not to lay off workers without approval from local officials.

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http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/841298cc-f7a0-11dd-a284-000077b07658.html?nclick_check=1