Scenario Injection 6: Drought in Australia

INJECTION 6: CLIMATE INDUCED FOOD SUPPLY REDUCTION DUE TO PROLONGED REDUCTION OF WATER SUPPLY IN PRIMARY AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION AREAS (EVENT+20 WEEKS)

- Due to sustained drought conditions water supplies into Australia’s primary agricultural production areas has been substantially reduced.
- Failure of major summer grain crops.
- Total failure of rice crops.

- This follows the pattern of the last 6 years which resulted in a reduction of Australia’s rice production by 98%. Prior to the prolonged drought Deniliquin Mill produced enough rice to feed 20 million people per day.
- Water rights have also been transferred to wine grape production (wine grape production returns, on average, $2000 per acre while rice returns around $240.00 per acre), thus taking potential rice growing areas permanently out of rice production.

- SunRice, the major Australian rice cooperative now competes on the world market for rice to ensure supply of Australian requirements, thus exacerbating the problem even further.
- Due to sustained drought the total wheat production for Australia was less than half the normal production as occurred in the 2002 / 2003 production period.

- Significant reserve was held in Australia to meet national food security requirements, thus reducing the total available for export.