Scenario Injection 10: Philippine Food Crisis

INJECTION 10: PHILIPPINE FOOD CRISIS (EVENT+30 WEEKS)

- The ongoing lack of food is contributing to a deterioration of public health, including the spread of fatal diseases such as cholera, typhoid and dengue.
- International humanitarian agencies, impacted by the global economic downturn, are already stretched beyond capacity in the region and in numerous other areas around the world. They are incapable of adequate response.
- Instability and public disorder caused by the lack of access to food and medical care, lead to riots against the government of Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, which had already been unstable.
- Muslim insurgencies intensify in the South and Communist insurgencies step up attacks of critical infrastructure throughout the country.
- Combined with the ongoing international financial crisis, and the breakdown of peace and order, widespread rumors indicate that members of the Philippine military are beginning to side with a new People Power movement, which appears as if it may bring down the Arroyo Administration.
- This new military-backed regime is equally unprepared to address the vital humanitarian and public health issues.
- Taking advantage of the chaos and violence, international terror organizations and Filipino radicals who had been trained in international terror centers return home and intensify the violence.
- Overstretched in other areas of the world and the region makes it difficult for the US military to respond effectively. Criticisms are being made within the Philippines that USAID lacks the flexibility, resources and initiative for adequate response. US military facilities in Zamboanga and Sulu become targets of the terror networks.

PHILIPPINES RESILIENCE NETWORKS IN MINDANAO HAVE BEEN SUCCESSFUL IN STABILIZING SOME AREAS IN MINDANAO. THE RESILIENCE NETWORKS ARE SPREADING AND PROVIDING THE BEGINNINGS OF AGRICULTURAL SUSTAINABILITY AND SUSTAINABLE SECURITY, IN GEOGRAPHIC AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN LESS AFFECTED BY INCREASING TYPHOON ACTIVITY AND ARMED CONFLICT.