U.S. Resilience Conference Scenario

RESILIENCE CONFERENCE SCENARIO The objective of the following scenario is to explore the value of new systems and capabilities applying new technical/operational paradigms such as Focus, Agility, Convergence (FAC) that augment the limitations of older, more linear, and in some cases, less responsive command and control systems. The emerging DoD doctrine regarding the anticipation, prevention, and management of large-scale social crises (including armed conflict but primarily focusing on complex operations other than war) impacting rapid humanitarian assistance, and disaster management will be discussed in the context of these systems and their potential contributions to these missions. The scenario will be composed of a cluster of regional disasters triggered by an initial event. SCENARIO DESCRIPTION & INITIAL EVENT A succession of regional disasters has occurred in Southeast Asia starting with an initial typhoon event. On 9 March 2009, Typhoon 2009001, a category 4 typhoon, hit the coast of Vietnam and moved inland through Cambodia to the Thai-Cambodia border. Approximately 6 days before landfall the typhoon had grown to a Category 4 storm. Over the next 24 hours, however, the storm rapidly lost intensity dropping to a Cat 2 typhoon. The storm continued in a course parallel with the coast of Vietnam. Approximately 4hours before landfall the storm change direction, moving directly toward the Vietnamese coast and re-intensified to Category 4 storm. The storm had sustained winds of 150 MPH and an initial coastal surge of 17 feet (5.2m) impacting the populated southern tip of Vietnam. This storm appeared abnormally early in the typhoon season particularly for a storm hitting as far south as Typhoon 2009001. Historical intensity zone information, in conjunction with satellite-based sea surface temperature data, indicted that the high sustained winds and abnormally heavy rainfall and atypical location for the month of March may be regional manifestations of global climate change. Detail views of regional storms for the period 1993-2003 for the Vietnam/Cambodia/Thailand region indicate the atypical behavior of Typhoon 2009001. Due to the heavy rainfall over a period of ten days the Lower Mekong River and Delta experienced heavy flooding. Approximately 18 million in Vietnam and Cambodia have been affected by the storm (Vietnam-15 million; Cambodia-3 million). The initial death toll directly attributable to the typhoon reached 40,000 in Vietnam and Cambodia by 14 March. Vietnam’s disaster response efforts were effective in reaching worst hit areas. Cambodia experienced more difficulty in implementing key disaster response activities. Over the next three weeks this number reached 250,000 as more remote areas were reached and secondary effects such as cholera, claimed more lives. Seven weeks after the initial impact of the typhoon lack of clean water and food and water-borne diseases raised the death toll total to 400,000. A combined total of approximately 9 million have been evacuated within the two countries (Vietnam-7.5 million; Cambodia-1.5 million). Concerns were expressed by the governments of Vietnam and Cambodia, as well as the International Community, that the region was in the midst of a humanitarian crisis. Based on infant mortality statistics Cambodia has demonstrated moderate to high fragility when faced with a sustained humanitarian crisis. While Vietnam is seen as slightly more resilient the overall Human Development Index, indicative of a country’s overall capacity, indicates a medium or moderate level of resilience. Severe flooding and lack of food and water are causing mass migration leading to large numbers of internally displaced and refugee populations. Movement of Cambodia refugees along the Cambodia-Vietnam border has increased the need for international support in the flooded regions in southern Vietnam. The international community is concerned that the loss of existing food stockpiles, farm stock and crop failures directly/indirectly attributable to the typhoon will lead to an increase in malnutrition and starvation. This, in turn, will exacerbate the mass movement of large populations internally and across borders. These pressures may dramatically increase the potential for regional conflict and limit the ability of international and regional aide organizations to provide immediate and long term support the affected regions. The long term prospects for recovery are poor given the saltification of agricultural fields and associated crop failures. REGIONAL OVERVIEW Typhoon 2009001 impacted heavily populated areas of southern Vietnam and Cambodia. Vietnam is considered more resilient to the effects of seasonal typhoons however the storm track covers heavily populated areas and key farming/agricultural regions key to rice production. Southeast Asia has been experiencing rapid population growth with sporadic growth of sustaining capabilities (food production, infrastructure development, economic growth, government stability, and health/safety). Food scarcity in Myanmar and the Philippines has increased the reliance of those countries on imports from Thailand and Vietnam. Indonesia continues to be a rice importer. Additionally, regional drought has impacted other food-producing countries such as Australia. The ability to withstand the effects of disasters is determined by (1) the destructive level of the hazard(s) (2) the vulnerability of the society/population/institutions impacted by the hazard and (3) the capacity of key institutions to withstand and recovery from the impact of the hazard. Vulnerability is often described in terms of the “fragility” of the country or region. Awareness and Resilience provide measures of regional capacity. Adult literacy is an indicator of Awareness and the Human Development Index, in conjunction with population growth, are used as indicators of Resilience. These indicators are illustrated for the region of Southeast Asia affected in this scenario.