Scenario Injection 5: Upper Respiratory Tract Infection Outbreaks

INJECTION 5: UPPER RESPIRATORY INFECTION OUTBREAKS (+10 WEEKS)

Rumors of highly infectious upper respiratory disease outbreaks among refugees in IDP/refugee camps established as a result of Typhoon 2009001, (feared to be Avian Influenza), have caused governments to fortify their borders, increasing the risk of armed conflict. Based on observed human cases of AI in the region previous to Typhoon 2009001 and increased reports of upper respiratory infections in border areas, governments are requesting aid in testing and treatment of any cases. Access to the region is limited due to the deterioration of regional roads and transportation infrastructure.

In conjunction with the Cholera epidemic and food shortages in the region, the potential of and AI outbreak characterized by direct human to human transmission could prove catastrophic. The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) is working with other regional IGOs to determine if this is an AI outbreak, the means of transmission, and the numbers affected.

Currently, estimates of 100-250 cases have been reported with 4 deaths attributed to the outbreak.